نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی)ره(، قزوین، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران
3 دانشیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی)ره(، قزوین، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Investigating the effects of climate change is very important in improving the state of agricultural productivity. It is predicted that the temperature increase will continue in the 21st century and will lead to changes in the climatic conditions of the regions. Changes in the distribution of rainfall, temperature and water resources are considered as harmful consequences of climate change, which can have destructive effects on the production of agricultural products. In this study, the effect of climate change and cultivation in different dates; The yield of Parsi variety of spring wheat in Qazvin plain was investigated. This study was conducted in the period of 2021-2100 and by comparing two information sources LARS-WG and DKRZ in producing annual climate change data and using the Aquacrop model in simulating plant response to the mentioned changes. In the periods of 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100, the most suitable dates for increasing the yield of wheat were investigated among different planting dates (15 Bahman, 1 Esfand, 15 Esfand, 1 April, and 15 April). According to the results of the models in both scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, in all four periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100, spring wheat yield will increase compared to its value in the base period. The highest performance in all of these periods and models is predicted for the period of 2081-2100 under the climate conditions of the LARS-WG model in scenario 8/5 if the sowing date is 15th of February; Its value is equal to 12.43 tons per hectare with a standard deviation of 0.31 tons per hectare, and the lowest yield for the period of 2021-2040 under LARS-WG climate conditions in the 4.5 scenario occurs on April 15. Its amount is expected to be equal to 7.87 tons per hectare with a standard deviation of 0.36 tons per hectare.
کلیدواژهها [English]