نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Investigating the effects of climate change on improving agricultural productivity is of great importance. It is predicted that the rising temperature trend will continue in the 21st century, leading to changes in the climatic conditions of regions. Changes in precipitation distribution ، temperature and water resources are considered as harmful consequences of climate change، which could have detrimental effects on agricultural production. . In this study، the impact of climate change and cultivation on different dates was examined in terms of the yield of the 'Parsi' spring wheat variety in the Qazvin Plain. This study covered the period from 2021to 2100, comparing two information sources, LARS-WG and DKRZ, for producing annual climate change data and using the Aquacrop model to simulate the plant’s response to the mentioned changes. During the periods 2021-2040، 2041-2060، 2061-2080، and 2081-2100، the best planting date (February 4, February 20, March 5, March 20, and April 4) for increasing wheat yield was evaluated. According to the model results in both scenarios 4.5 and 8.5، in all four periods (2021-2040، 2041-2060، 2061-2080 and 2081-2100), the spring wheat yield will increase compared to the baseline.. The highest yield in all of these periods and models is predicted for the period 2081-2100 under the LARS-WG climate model of in scenario 8.5, assuming planting on February 4, with an estimated yield of 12.43 tons per hectare and a standard deviation of 0.31 tons per hectare. the lowest yield is expected for the period 2021-2040 under LARS-WG climate conditions in scenario4.5, with planting on April 4, with an estimated yield of 7.87 tons per hectare and a standard deviation of 0.36 tons per hectare. In all four periods (2021-2040، 2041-2060، 2061-2080 and 2081-2100), February 4 is recommended as the most suitable planting date to increase wheat yield in the Qazvin plain.
کلیدواژهها English
